Moneyball, Barbells and Daring to Be Different

"It's not what you don't know that gets you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain

Spoiler alert: last week I rewatched the Movie Moneyball starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill.  It is based on a true story and demonstrates some fundamental flaws in the human cognitive operating system.  In brief, an economist uses mathematical algorithms to determine how one could build a winning baseball team on a budget.  It flies in the face of everything the “experts”’ believe to be true and pokes holes in all the narratives they have developed surrounding the “art” of picking a winning team.  Brad Pitt’s character is roundly criticized from folks in his organization, the media and the public for breaking from tradition and good old “common sense” practices.  Until his team starts winning.  And what then?  When the Oakland A’s go on a record setting winning streak never before seen in the sport, obviously then everyone is forced to acknowledge the brilliance of their strategy, right?

Wrong.  The wins are attributed to the team manager’s savvy and, when they finally lose, all is forgotten.  Except by the owner of the Boston Red Sox who sees the brilliance of this unorthodox approach and implements it in order to save himself tens of millions of dollars while leading his team to a World Series victory.  And you would think that with that much money on the line and a proof of concept, the entire industry would change.  And it did.  Gradually.  We humans are not quick to abandon our belief systems and entrenched ways of operating in the world.  The experts, the ones with the most to lose, tend to be most resistant to change.

We see it everywhere.  As attributed to Max Planck: “Science progresses one funeral at a time.”  There is little room for change in a field of knowledge until the old die off to be replaced with younger, progressive minds open to considering new information. 

In fooled by Randomness, Nassim Taleb explores the remarkable human capacity to perceive patterns in randomness like seeing shapes in clouds.  And once perceived, our clever, story telling brains, create convincing narratives to explain the patterns we see amongst the random noise.  And worse yet, we usually fall into the trap of believing it is all true.  We are all susceptible to this.  All the time.  In every aspect of our lives.

It sounds like a fatal flaw.  But Daniel Kahneman explores this in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow in which he identifies two systems: system 1 which is fast, instinctive and emotional and, system 2 which is slow, deliberative and logical.  System 1 tends to dominate.  Our survival depends upon it.  Anyone who stopped to ponder the meaning of tiger or contemplate the philosophical import of the predator-prey relationship probably ended up as food.  In life and death situations your instinctive, emotional response is key to your survival.  Despite the fact that it is frequently wrong.

As Taleb points out, you are not too likely to suffer harm by mistaking a rock for a bear but, if you mistake a bear for a rock, your chances of passing on your genes diminish significantly.  So, system 1 is crucial to survival.  But it proves much less useful in non-life-or-death situations.  Unfortunately, because we are emotional, system 1 speaks more loudly to us and is much more likely to shape our behaviours than system 2.  The more accurate system 2 is slower and requires more effort to operate.  And in this busty world, who has time to think deeply on every little thing?

And so we fall into habits of thought and behaviour that are often counter productive.  Like overpaying by tens of millions of dollars to stock our team with overpaid All Star baseball players who fail to win the pennant.  Okay, for you and me our error is more likely to fall into patterns of social behaviour that reflect the common practice of the people around us.  We will, with little reflection and much self justification, mimic their social behaviour, political beliefs, dietary practices, financial decisions, etc.  Because when we don’t know any better, it is generally better to follow the herd.  They can’t all be wrong, can they?  And if they are, well, it’s not really our fault when things go wrong.  You can’t blame me if things go wrong if I was just following the common advice, can you? 

No, what is scary, is doing something different.  Because if it fails, not only were you wrong, you were the only one wrong.  You went the wrong way despite what everyone told you.  Now you are not only wrong, you are all alone.  That’s why it is so difficult to be a trail blazer.  Sure, the slogan “Dare to be different,” sounds great but who really has the stones to actually be different?  No, following your friends into the next new trend is not “daring to be different” even if the next new trend is a wild and crazy departure from the previous status quo.  You’re not being different; you’re just being the same as somebody new.

Every visionary faces this uphill battle.  Glassman faced it at the start with CrossFit until it picked up momentum and caught the attention of folks who wanted to be “different” just like all those other fit people.  Like the characters in Moneyball, Glassman faced major resistance from the fitness establishment and hostile industry experts who seemed immune to the results-based evidence that flew in the face of their well-established theories. 

Yes, the success of CrossFit and Glassman’s bulldozer-like personality put a barbell-shaped dent in the fitness industry.  At least temporarily.  But, with his departure from CrossFit, the industry is slowly shifting back to the status quo and forgetting the lessons learned by CrossFit’s astounding success.  Even CrossFitters are forgetting the wonder of the methodology and drifting away.  And, as always, there are an abundance of shiny new fitness fads ready to tempt folks into chasing after the next new thing.

But as Nassim Taleb points out in his book Antifragile, all you have ever needed for world class fitness is a barbell and a pair of running shoes.  Elite performers have known and practiced this since the dawn of time.  The rest is all smoke and mirrors.  And I tend to agree.  (Though I’d ditch the running shoes and add a pull up bar or pair of gymnastics rings.) 

To the uninitiated CrossFit seemed like something new and different but it was instead, a return to the basics, the things that have always worked and always will work for producing the best fitness outcomes: lift heavy things (weightlifting), move your body through space (gymnastics) and get your heart rate elevated (run, row, bike, swim, etc).  Combine these disciplines in unique and constantly varied ways and you will get fitter. 

Folks will come up with complicated narratives to sell you something different, but the truth is always simple.  It doesn’t need fancy packaging or complicated explanations.  Experts in every discipline tend to be the people most resistant to change.  The ones who have the hardest time letting go their narrative in the face of contradictory evidence. 

Well, so what?  My wife asks me.  Well, like Mark Twain said, it’s not what you don’t know that is going to hurt you, it’s the thing you think you know for sure that just isn’t so.  Just like a diet low in fat was supposed to be heart healthy or mortgage-backed securities were a sure thing that could never fail.  Those kinds of errors can be fatal.  And they are expert-supported ideas that coincide with the narratives we’ve created to support system 1 thinking.  They are the result of mirages our minds perceive in the random patterns of the world.  And they can kill us.

I admire trail blazers like Glassman or the folks who the movie Moneyball is based on for having the courage and conviction to conceive of and act upon divergent viewpoints.  I applaud the brilliant minds of folks like Taleb and Kahneman who possess the clarity of vision to see through the obfuscating complexity of false narratives to the simplicity of truth.  And most of all, I pray to embody the wisdom to change my mind in response to evidence to the contrary.   

Monday

Benchmark workout Zoe. Today we will dedicate 30 minutes to developing your upper body pushing/pulling strength. That’s one muscle up per minute. If you do not yet possess a muscle up, your goal should be 1 rep of you most challenging pull up and ring dip progression every minute on the minute. This is a chance to develop a high level of competency at a skill you find difficult. 30 reps is a reasonable work volume, sufficient to stimulate physiological and neurological adaptations but, spread over 30 minutes, the intensity should be low enough to allow you to focus on quality execution. Today you will get stronger in very fundamental universal motor recruitment patterns (upper body pushing and upper body pulling) and make progress toward your next level of athletic development!   One step closer to your pull up, ring dip, muscle up, etc.

Warm Up
3 rounds (1 min each):
A. Judo Push Up Rocks
B. Bar Hang
C. Hammer Halos
D. Ring Support

Tech
Muscle Up Options and Alternatives

WOD
Zoe
30 MU

or

30 min EMOM
1 Pull Up
1 Ring Dip

Use the most challenging progression you can perform